Switzerland
Qatar
Austria
Iran
Saudi Arabia
Turkey
USA
Egypt
IraqThis market will resolve according to the country in which the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Middle East/North Africa”.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Europe”.
For the purposes of this market, additional countries’ regions will be determined based on the US State Department’s regional classifications in the “Countries and Areas List” (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of “Europe and Eurasia” will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of “Near East (Middle East and North Africa)” will be considered to be in the Middle East.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any unlisted country which is not classified in either of the specified regions, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If no qualifying meeting takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Meeting by June 30”.
If a qualifying meeting occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on where the first qualifying diplomatic session takes place.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
What the Prediction Market Asks
This market focuses on identifying the location of the next formal diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran. Participants assess possible venues ranging from neutral third countries to international organizations or even virtual formats if physical gatherings prove impractical.
Background and Significance
Relations between the United States and Iran have long featured periods of limited direct contact punctuated by occasional high-level engagements. Such meetings often address nuclear issues, regional security, sanctions relief, and consular matters. The choice of venue carries symbolic weight, reflecting trust levels, security considerations, and the involvement of intermediary states or institutions. Observers monitor these events because they can signal shifts in policy direction or open channels for further dialogue on issues affecting global energy markets and Middle East stability.
Key Factors Traders Watch
Market participants track official statements from both governments, announcements by foreign ministries, and reports from credible international media. They also follow the activities of intermediary nations such as Oman, Switzerland, and Qatar that have historically hosted talks. Additional considerations include the status of broader multilateral forums like the United Nations or the International Atomic Energy Agency, as well as any emerging regional initiatives that might provide a convenient setting. Security conditions, travel restrictions, and domestic political calendars in both countries further influence expectations about where and when a meeting might occur.
How Resolution Works
The market resolves once a meeting takes place and is confirmed through multiple independent, reputable sources. Resolution criteria emphasize official joint statements, verified attendance by authorized representatives, and clear documentation that the event addressed bilateral diplomatic matters. If the meeting occurs in a location not listed among active options, or if no qualifying meeting materializes within the defined timeframe, the market may resolve to an appropriate residual category according to the platform rules. Traders rely on transparent sourcing standards to avoid disputes over ambiguous reports.
