This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-30 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Democratic Party
$5.5K Volume
95%
Republican Party
$6.4K Volume
7%
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for TX-30 House Election Winner?
Democratic Party dominates the field at 95%; the nearest challenger, Republican Party, trades at just 7%. The order book treats this as nearly decided.
What do traders predict for TX-30 House Election Winner?
Traders price Democratic Party at a 95% implied probability - about as confident as prediction markets get. Real money stands behind that number, updated live.
When does the TX-30 House Election Winner market resolve?
Mark 3 Nov 2026 (115 days left): that's when this market is due to resolve, following Polymarket's published criteria once the result is verified.
How much money is trading on TX-30 House Election Winner?
Traders have put $11.9K through this market so far - a solid gauge of how much real money backs these odds.
How can I trade TX-30 House Election Winner on Polymarket?
Track the live odds on this page, then open the market on Polymarket to take a position. Trade carefully - only stake what you can afford to lose.
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