This market will resolve to "Yes" for each listed state that has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of August 25, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No".
States appear only during the months in which they plausibly reach D4, so this event's roster changes through the year. 40 of the 48 coterminous states are in season for August: Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Wyoming. A state absent from this event is not making any claim about that state's drought — it simply has no market this week.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Nebraska
$305 Volume
97%
Texas
97%
Colorado
$163 Volume
94%
Nevada
$68 Volume
97%
Utah
$40 Volume
94%
Virginia
$399 Volume
99%
Arizona
98%
Arkansas
98%
California
98%
Florida
98%
Iowa
98%
Kansas
98%
Minnesota
98%
Mississippi
98%
Montana
98%
New Jersey
98%
New Mexico
98%
North Carolina
98%
North Dakota
98%
Oklahoma
$71 Volume
98%
Oregon
98%
South Carolina
98%
South Dakota
98%
Washington
98%
Wisconsin
98%
Wyoming
98%
Louisiana
99%
Alabama
99%
Delaware
99%
Georgia
99%
Idaho
99%
Illinois
99%
Indiana
99%
Kentucky
99%
Maryland
99%
Missouri
99%
Ohio
99%
Pennsylvania
99%
Tennessee
99%
West Virginia
99%
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Exceptional drought (D4) by state — week of August 25, 2026?
Nebraska leads the field at 79%, with Texas next at 67%. A solid favorite - though every trade can reshuffle the board.
What do traders predict for Exceptional drought (D4) by state — week of August 25, 2026?
The market makes Nebraska the favorite at 79%. Implied probabilities come from real positions, and they move as traders digest new information.
When does the Exceptional drought (D4) by state — week of August 25, 2026 market resolve?
The market runs until 27 Aug 2026 (4 days left), then settles according to Polymarket's published resolution rules for this event.
How much money is trading on Exceptional drought (D4) by state — week of August 25, 2026?
Traders have put $111 through this market so far - a solid gauge of how much real money backs these odds.
How can I trade Exceptional drought (D4) by state — week of August 25, 2026 on Polymarket?
Follow this page for live prices; trading happens on Polymarket itself. Start small - implied odds move, and so can your position's value.
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