SPX · Up or Down

S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on August 3?

$26.9K Volume
03/08/2026 20:00
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This market will resolve to "Up" if the official S&P 500 Index open price for S&P 500 (SPX) on August 3 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day.

This market will resolve to "Down" if the official S&P 500 Index open price for S&P 500 (SPX) on August 3 is lower than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day.

E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day.

If the two prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.

If SPX does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50.

If either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official open/close price published by S&P 500 Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.

If the previous trading day has no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.

The resolution source for this market is the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Open/Close values published by the WSJ under "Historical Prices".

US: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks
EMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea
ASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia

Resolution Source: www.wsj.com

Odds & FAQ

What are the current odds for S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on August 3?
It's a genuine race: Down edges the field at 51%, barely ahead of Up at 49%. Tight markets like this can flip on one headline.
What do traders predict for S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on August 3?
At 51% implied for Down, the market isn't committing. Expect these numbers to move as the picture develops.
When does the S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on August 3 market resolve?
Resolution is scheduled for 3 Aug 2026 (3 days left). Once the outcome is confirmed, the market settles under Polymarket's published criteria.
How much money is trading on S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on August 3?
Traders have put $26.9K through this market so far - a solid gauge of how much real money backs these odds.
How can I trade S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on August 3 on Polymarket?
Follow this page for live prices; trading happens on Polymarket itself. Start small - implied odds move, and so can your position's value.

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