This market will resolve to "Up" if the official S&P 500 Index open price for S&P 500 (SPX) on August 25 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the official S&P 500 Index open price for S&P 500 (SPX) on August 25 is lower than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day.
E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day.
If the two prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
If SPX does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50.
If either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official open/close price published by S&P 500 Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If the previous trading day has no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Open/Close values published by the WSJ under "Historical Prices".
US: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks
EMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea
ASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia
Resolution Source: www.wsj.com
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on August 25?
The current front-runner is Up at 55%, ahead of Down at 45%. These live odds update with every trade on the Polymarket order book.
What do traders predict for S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on August 25?
Traders currently imply a 55% chance for Up. Market-implied probabilities reflect real money at stake, but they are live forecasts that shift as new information arrives, not guarantees.
When does the S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on August 25 market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on 25 Aug 2026 (2 days left). It settles according to Polymarket's published resolution criteria once the outcome is confirmed.
How much money is trading on S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on August 25?
Total traded volume on this market is $29.8K, a measure of how much real money traders have committed to the outcome.
How can I trade S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on August 25 on Polymarket?
You can follow the live odds on this page and open the market on Polymarket to trade it yourself. Prediction trading carries risk; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
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