This market will resolve to "Yes" if Situational Awareness announces that it will cease operations, that Situational Awareness LP will be wound down, or that all outside investor capital in Situational Awareness LP will be returned, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A conversion to a family office or proprietary vehicle, or a distribution of assets in kind to investors, will qualify if all outside investor capital is returned or announced to be returned. A transition of all assets to a liquidating trust or special purpose vehicle will qualify if that vehicle is announced to accept no new outside capital.
A consensus of credible reporting that Situational Awareness has ceased operations, that Situational Awareness LP has been wound down, or that all outside investor capital in Situational Awareness LP has been returned, will also qualify to resolve this market to "Yes".
The following will not qualify: closing the fund to new investors; redemption gates or suspensions; redemptions made under existing lockup terms; the liquidation of positions, a strategy, or a portfolio without a wind-down of the fund; partial redemptions; or a renamed, successor, continuation, or rollover vehicle that continues to accept outside capital.
Once a qualifying announcement occurs, a subsequent decision to continue operations will not change the resolution of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Situational Awareness, including any withdrawal of investment adviser registration filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
August 31
$6.1K Volume
17%
December 31
$5K Volume
31%
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by?
Even the leader is cheap - December 31 trades at 30%, August 31 at 17%. A crowded, uncertain field where odds move constantly.
What do traders predict for Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by?
No strong consensus yet: December 31 tops the implied probabilities at just 30%. Watch how the money moves as the event approaches.
When does the Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by market resolve?
Resolution is scheduled for 31 Dec 2026 (154 days left). Once the outcome is confirmed, the market settles under Polymarket's published criteria.
How much money is trading on Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by?
Total turnover stands at $11.1K. Volume shows conviction: these odds are backed by actual positions, not polls.
How can I trade Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by on Polymarket?
Follow this page for live prices; trading happens on Polymarket itself. Start small - implied odds move, and so can your position's value.
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