Yemen · Military

Saudi troops enter Marib Governorate by...?

$16.1K Volume
01/01/2027 04:59
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December 31
$4.3K Volume
20%
Resolved 1
October 31
$11.7K Volume
No

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Saudi troops enter any part of Marib Governorate, Yemen by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

"Saudi troops" refers to active military personnel officially affiliated with Saudi Arabia. Only members of the regular armed forces of Saudi Arabia will qualify. Foreign fighters, private military contractors, mercenaries, or any other personnel recruited, paid, trained, equipped or directed by Saudi Arabia who are not members of the Saudi Arabian armed forces will not qualify, regardless of whether they operate under Saudi command or on Saudi Arabia’s behalf. Members of the armed forces of any other state, including those operating as part of a Saudi-led coalition, will not qualify.

"Marib Governorate" refers to the entirety of Marib Governorate, Yemen, as defined by its official administrative boundaries.

"Enter" means that the Saudi troops, even temporarily, deliberately operate within any part of Marib Governorate, other than as prisoners of war or as emissaries as described below. Bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim of Saudi troop entry will not qualify without actual entry being established.

The entrance of Saudi emissaries for the purpose of negotiating an agreement or other diplomatic or commercial endeavors will not alone qualify.

If the occurrence or timing of a potentially qualifying entry cannot be determined on the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market may remain open for three calendar days (ET) after the specified date. If Saudi troop entry into the specified territory is not established by this market's resolution sources by the end of the third calendar day, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Saudi Arabia, including the Saudi Ministry of Defense; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Odds & FAQ

What are the current odds for Saudi troops enter Marib Governorate by?
Yes is priced at 15% and No at 85%, based on live Polymarket order-book trading. Prices move in real time as traders buy and sell.
What do traders predict for Saudi troops enter Marib Governorate by?
Traders currently imply a 15% chance for Yes. Market-implied probabilities reflect real money at stake, but they are live forecasts that shift as new information arrives, not guarantees.
When does the Saudi troops enter Marib Governorate by market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on 1 Jan 2027 (59 days left). It settles according to Polymarket's published resolution criteria once the outcome is confirmed.
How much money is trading on Saudi troops enter Marib Governorate by?
Total traded volume on this market is $16.1K, a measure of how much real money traders have committed to the outcome.
How can I trade Saudi troops enter Marib Governorate by on Polymarket?
You can follow the live odds on this page and open the market on Polymarket to trade it yourself. Prediction trading carries risk; never stake more than you can afford to lose.

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