Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.

Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.

Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.

This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.

The prediction market for a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by the end of 2026 currently stands at a 29.0% probability, reflecting cautious optimism amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. With a trading volume of $14.1 million, this market highlights investor sentiment regarding the feasibility of a formal ceasefire agreement, which would require a publicly announced and mutually accepted halt in military actions by December 3. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for stakeholders, as a ceasefire could significantly impact regional stability and global economic conditions.