Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.

Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.

Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.

A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.

This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.

The prediction market regarding a potential ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine by June 30, 2026, currently reflects a 7.0% probability, indicating low confidence in a resolution within the specified timeframe. With a trading volume of $6.4 million, this market highlights the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the conflict and the complexities involved in achieving a mutually agreed halt in military engagement. Monitoring this market is crucial for investors and analysts, as it provides insights into geopolitical stability and the potential for diplomatic progress in the region.