Weather · earthquake

Megaquake by July 31?

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$9 Volume

31/07/2026 23:59

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Past

Jun 30 Jan 31

Jul 31

A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.

After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.

Odds & FAQ

What are the current odds for Megaquake by July 31?

The market prices Yes at only 8%, with No at 93%. Traders currently see this as unlikely - but live odds are a forecast, not a verdict.

What do traders predict for Megaquake by July 31?

No strong consensus yet: Yes tops the implied probabilities at just 8%. Watch how the money moves as the event approaches.

When does the Megaquake by July 31 market resolve?

Resolution is scheduled for 31 Jul 2026 (23 days left). Once the outcome is confirmed, the market settles under Polymarket's published criteria.

How much money is trading on Megaquake by July 31?

Traders have put $9 through this market so far - a solid gauge of how much real money backs these odds.

How can I trade Megaquake by July 31 on Polymarket?

Track the live odds on this page, then open the market on Polymarket to take a position. Trade carefully - only stake what you can afford to lose.