Politics · Iran

Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by...?

$1 Volume
31/07/2026 23:59
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July 10
$1 Volume
59%
July 17
72%
July 31
72%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Israel and Lebanon by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Israel-Lebanon relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.

Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.

The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.

The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the Israel and Lebanon, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Odds & FAQ

What are the current odds for Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by?
The front-runner right now is July 31 at 52%, ahead of July 17 at 44%. These implied odds update with every trade on Polymarket's order book.
What do traders predict for Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by?
The market gives July 31 a 52% implied chance. These probabilities reflect real money at stake, but they are live forecasts that shift as news breaks, not guarantees.
When does the Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by market resolve?
It is scheduled to resolve on 31 Jul 2026 (31 days left), settling under Polymarket's published rules once the outcome is confirmed.
How much money is trading on Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by?
Total traded volume on this market is $1 - a gauge of how much real money traders have put behind the outcome.
How can I trade Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by on Polymarket?
Follow the live odds on this page, then open the market on Polymarket to trade it yourself. Prediction trading carries risk; never stake more than you can afford to lose.

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