This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Relevant Guides
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Human moon landing in 2026?
Yes is priced at 1% and No at 99%, based on live Polymarket order-book trading. Prices move in real time as traders buy and sell.
What do traders predict for Human moon landing in 2026?
Traders currently imply a 1% chance for Yes. Market-implied probabilities reflect real money at stake, but they are live forecasts that shift as new information arrives, not guarantees.
When does the Human moon landing in 2026 market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on 1 Jan 2027 (59 days left). It settles according to Polymarket's published resolution criteria once the outcome is confirmed.
How much money is trading on Human moon landing in 2026?
Total traded volume on this market is $2M, a measure of how much real money traders have committed to the outcome.
How can I trade Human moon landing in 2026 on Polymarket?
You can follow the live odds on this page and open the market on Polymarket to trade it yourself. Prediction trading carries risk; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
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