This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
5.0%
$123.4K Volume
14%
5.5%
$200.6K Volume
7%
6.0%
$75.5K Volume
7%
7.0%
$31.3K Volume
5%
10.0%
$51K Volume
7%
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for How high will US unemployment go in 2026?
The field is wide open: 5.0% tops it at just 13%, with 5.5% close behind at 7%. Plenty of outcomes still carry real probability.
What do traders predict for How high will US unemployment go in 2026?
No strong consensus yet: 5.0% tops the implied probabilities at just 13%. Watch how the money moves as the event approaches.
When does the How high will US unemployment go in 2026 market resolve?
The market runs until 1 Feb 2027 (162 days left), then settles according to Polymarket's published resolution rules for this event.
How much money is trading on How high will US unemployment go in 2026?
$481.9K in total volume has traded here. Deeper markets like this tend to price events more sharply.
How can I trade How high will US unemployment go in 2026 on Polymarket?
Track the live odds on this page, then open the market on Polymarket to take a position. Trade carefully - only stake what you can afford to lose.
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