This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Democratic Party
$3.8K Volume
89%
Republican Party
$4.5K Volume
13%
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for CA-21 House Election Winner?
Democratic Party dominates the field at 88%; the nearest challenger, Republican Party, trades at just 12%. The order book treats this as nearly decided.
What do traders predict for CA-21 House Election Winner?
With 88% implied for Democratic Party, the market has largely made up its mind. Still a forecast, not a result: prices react instantly if the story changes.
When does the CA-21 House Election Winner market resolve?
Resolution is scheduled for 3 Nov 2026 (116 days left). Once the outcome is confirmed, the market settles under Polymarket's published criteria.
How much money is trading on CA-21 House Election Winner?
Total turnover stands at $8.3K. Volume shows conviction: these odds are backed by actual positions, not polls.
How can I trade CA-21 House Election Winner on Polymarket?
You can watch the odds move here in real time and trade the market directly on Polymarket. As always, prediction trading carries real risk.
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