Politics · Elections

CA-02 House Election Winner

$7.4K Volume
03/11/2026 00:00
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Democratic Party
$4.2K Volume
94%
Republican Party
$3.3K Volume
7%

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.

​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Odds & FAQ

What are the current odds for CA-02 House Election Winner?
At 94%, Democratic Party has pulled far clear of Republican Party (7%). Prices stay live until resolution, but the market sees one clear outcome.
What do traders predict for CA-02 House Election Winner?
Traders price Democratic Party at a 94% implied probability - about as confident as prediction markets get. Real money stands behind that number, updated live.
When does the CA-02 House Election Winner market resolve?
Mark 3 Nov 2026 (115 days left): that's when this market is due to resolve, following Polymarket's published criteria once the result is verified.
How much money is trading on CA-02 House Election Winner?
$7.4K in total volume has traded here. Deeper markets like this tend to price events more sharply.
How can I trade CA-02 House Election Winner on Polymarket?
Follow this page for live prices; trading happens on Polymarket itself. Start small - implied odds move, and so can your position's value.

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