This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for July 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
<25
$2.4K Volume
17%
25-27
$806 Volume
26%
28-30
$673 Volume
14%
31-33
$1.2K Volume
25%
34-36
$959 Volume
18%
37-39
$1.1K Volume
18%
40+
$2.3K Volume
9%
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of July?
Even the leader is cheap - 31-33 trades at 23%, 25-27 at 20%. A crowded, uncertain field where odds move constantly.
What do traders predict for Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of July?
No strong consensus yet: 31-33 tops the implied probabilities at just 23%. Watch how the money moves as the event approaches.
When does the Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of July market resolve?
The market runs until 31 Jul 2026 (10 days left), then settles according to Polymarket's published resolution rules for this event.
How much money is trading on Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of July?
Traders have put $740 through this market so far - a solid gauge of how much real money backs these odds.
How can I trade Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of July on Polymarket?
You can watch the odds move here in real time and trade the market directly on Polymarket. As always, prediction trading carries real risk.
Similar Markets
↑ $9048%YesNo
↓ $8045%YesNo
December 3133%YesNo
September 3023%YesNo
30+15%YesNo
40+12%YesNo
December 3116%YesNo
September 307%YesNo
July 3111%YesNo
July 142%YesNo
