This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Republican
$8.6K Volume
94%
Democrat
$3.6K Volume
4%
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Arkansas Senate Election Winner?
At 94%, Republican has pulled far clear of Democrat (3%). Prices stay live until resolution, but the market sees one clear outcome.
What do traders predict for Arkansas Senate Election Winner?
Traders price Republican at a 94% implied probability - about as confident as prediction markets get. Real money stands behind that number, updated live.
When does the Arkansas Senate Election Winner market resolve?
Mark 3 Nov 2026 (104 days left): that's when this market is due to resolve, following Polymarket's published criteria once the result is verified.
How much money is trading on Arkansas Senate Election Winner?
Total turnover stands at $12.2K. Volume shows conviction: these odds are backed by actual positions, not polls.
How can I trade Arkansas Senate Election Winner on Polymarket?
You can watch the odds move here in real time and trade the market directly on Polymarket. As always, prediction trading carries real risk.
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