This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
Yes is the outsider here at 2%, while No trades at 98%. Longshot prices like this can move sharply when new information lands.
What do traders predict for 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
Right now the market's best guess is Yes at 2% - a lead, but a fragile one in a wide-open field backed by real trading.
When does the 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027 market resolve?
Mark 31 Dec 2026 (162 days left): that's when this market is due to resolve, following Polymarket's published criteria once the result is verified.
How much money is trading on 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
Traders have put $727.2K through this market so far - a solid gauge of how much real money backs these odds.
How can I trade 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027 on Polymarket?
Follow this page for live prices; trading happens on Polymarket itself. Start small - implied odds move, and so can your position's value.
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