This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Science
· Weather
· Climate & Science
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
Yes
$622.5K Volume
5%
About This Market
Similar Markets
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?
December 31
Yes 15¢No 85¢
September 30
Yes 7¢No 93¢
SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap (Lower Strikes)
2.0T+
Yes 63¢No 37¢
1.8T–2.0T
Yes 19¢No 81¢
May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.10–1.14ºC
Yes 95¢No 5¢
<1.10ºC
Yes 2¢No 98¢
Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
SpaceXYes 83¢No 17¢
AnthropicYes 12¢No 88¢
How many SpaceX launches in June 2026?
14+
Yes 47¢No 53¢
13
Yes 33¢No 67¢
How many 6.5 or above earthquakes June 1 - June 7?
0
Yes 87¢No 13¢
1
Yes 15¢No 85¢
How many 5.5 or above earthquakes June 1 - June 7?
≤5
Yes 87¢No 13¢
6
Yes 12¢No 88¢
