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How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
0 (0 bps)
Yes 69¢No 31¢
1 (25 bps)
Yes 16¢No 84¢
$25.6M Volume 31/12
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ?
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ?
December 31, 2026
Yes 86¢No 14¢
June 30, 2026
Yes 67¢No 33¢
$25.8M Volume Ends today
Largest Company end of June?
Largest Company end of June?
NVIDIANVIDIA
Yes 83¢No 17¢
AlphabetAlphabet
Yes 15¢No 85¢
$498.3K Volume 30/06
Largest Company end of May?
Largest Company end of May?
NVIDIANVIDIA
Yes 94¢No 6¢
AlphabetAlphabet
Yes 6¢No 94¢
$498.3K Volume 6 days left
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30? Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30?
2%
chance
Yes 2¢ No 98¢
$127.7K Volume 30/06
2nd largest company end of May?
2nd largest company end of May?
AlphabetAlphabet
Yes 93¢No 7¢
AppleApple
Yes 5¢No 95¢
$52.1K Volume 6 days left
3rd largest company end of May?
3rd largest company end of May?
AppleApple
Yes 95¢No 5¢
AlphabetAlphabet
Yes 4¢No 96¢
$14K Volume 6 days left
IPOs before 2027?
IPOs before 2027?
CerebrasCerebras
Yes 99¢No 1¢
SpaceXSpaceX
Yes 94¢No 6¢
$10.7K Volume 31/12
What kind of product will OpenAI announce in 2026?
What kind of product will OpenAI announce in 2026?
Earbuds/Headphones
Yes 38¢No 62¢
Glasses
Yes 26¢No 74¢
$255.8K Volume 31/12
Largest Company end of December 2026?
Largest Company end of December 2026?
NVIDIANVIDIA
Yes 60¢No 40¢
AlphabetAlphabet
Yes 31¢No 69¢
$498.3K Volume 31/12
SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap
SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap
2.0T-2.5T
Yes 28¢No 72¢
1.5T-2.0T
Yes 27¢No 73¢
$2M Volume
Gemini 3.5 released by...?
Gemini 3.5 released by...?
July 31
Yes 32¢No 68¢
June 30
Yes 5¢No 95¢
$1M Volume 30/06
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?
1%
chance
Yes 1¢ No 99¢
$3.3M Volume 30/06
Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30? Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30?
15%
chance
Yes 15¢ No 85¢
$3.7K Volume 30/06
AI bubble burst by...?
AI bubble burst by...?
December 31, 2026
Yes 23¢No 77¢
$2.8M Volume 31/12
US recession by end of 2026? US recession by end of 2026?
22%
chance
Yes 22¢ No 78¢
$1.4M Volume 31/01
Lead Bank in SpaceX’s IPO?
Lead Bank in SpaceX’s IPO?
Morgan StanleyMorgan Stanley
Yes 41¢No 59¢
Goldman SachsGoldman Sachs
Yes 34¢No 66¢
$1.7M Volume 31/12
Critical Discord Incident by May 31? Critical Discord Incident by May 31?
16%
chance
Yes 16¢ No 84¢
$2K Volume 6 days left
Anthropic next funding round closed by...?
Anthropic next funding round closed by...?
June 3085%
December 3197%
$12.6K Volume 31/12
Which companies will be acquired before 2027?
Which companies will be acquired before 2027?
CursorCursor
Yes 76¢No 24¢
Caesars EntertainmentCaesars Entertainment
Yes 72¢No 28¢
$17.7M Volume 31/12
Which airlines will announce bankruptcy by December 31?
Which airlines will announce bankruptcy by December 31?
Frontier AirlinesFrontier Airlines
Yes 36¢No 64¢
JetBlueJetBlue
Yes 14¢No 86¢
$87K Volume 31/12
OpenAI IPO by...?
OpenAI IPO by...?
December 31, 2026
Yes 28¢No 72¢
June 30, 2026
Yes 2¢No 98¢
$1.2M Volume 31/12
Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
SpaceXSpaceX
Yes 87¢No 13¢
AnthropicAnthropic
Yes 10¢No 90¢
$1.8M Volume 31/12
Which banks will fail by June 30?
Which banks will fail by June 30?
BNYBNY
Yes 9¢No 91¢
BMOBMO
Yes 2¢No 98¢
$1.6K Volume 30/06
Will Trump Mobile release a phone by...?
Will Trump Mobile release a phone by...?
April 301%
June 3014%
$40.7K Volume 30/06
Tesla and xAI merger officially announced by June 30? Tesla and xAI merger officially announced by June 30?
3%
chance
Yes 3¢ No 97¢
$73.6K Volume 30/06
Which banks will fail by end of 2026?
Which banks will fail by end of 2026?
BMOBMO
Yes 47¢No 53¢
TruistTruist
Yes 33¢No 67¢
$1.6K Volume 31/12
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027? NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?
20%
chance
Yes 20¢ No 80¢
$52.5K Volume 31/12
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?
81%
chance
Yes 81¢ No 19¢
$576 Volume 31/12
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027? AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?
20%
chance
Yes 20¢ No 80¢
$537 Volume 31/12
OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July? OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July?
3%
chance
Yes 3¢ No 97¢
$104.8K Volume 30/06
Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?
Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?
OpenAIOpenAI
Yes 13¢No 87¢
MistralMistral
Yes 10¢No 90¢
$566 Volume 30/06
Another critical Cloudflare incident by...?
Another critical Cloudflare incident by...?
September 30
Yes 78¢No 22¢
June 30
Yes 45¢No 55¢
$17.1K Volume 30/09
In which month will SpaceX IPO?
In which month will SpaceX IPO?
June
Yes 67¢No 33¢
August
Yes 21¢No 79¢
$335.3K Volume 31/12
Kraken IPO by ___ ?
Kraken IPO by ___ ?
December 31, 2026
Yes 69¢No 31¢
$1.6M Volume Ends today
Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026? Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026?
8%
chance
Yes 8¢ No 92¢
$50.3K Volume 31/12
Which DCMs self-certify sports event contracts by June 30?
Which DCMs self-certify sports event contracts by June 30?
RailbirdRailbird
Yes 80¢No 20¢
LedgerXLedgerX
Yes 80¢No 20¢
$229 Volume 30/06
Canada recession before 2027? Canada recession before 2027?
15%
chance
Yes 15¢ No 85¢
$66.7K Volume 31/12
Who will buy the Seattle Seahawks?
Who will buy the Seattle Seahawks?
Jeff BezosJeff Bezos
Yes 25¢No 75¢
LeBron JamesLeBron James
Yes 6¢No 94¢
$71.1K Volume 10/09
Riku Dining Group IPO Closing Market Cap
Riku Dining Group IPO Closing Market Cap
No IPO before June 2026
Yes 90¢No 10¢
110M–130M
Yes 4¢No 96¢
$64.7K Volume 2 days left
Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?
Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?
GoogleGoogle
Yes 64¢No 36¢
OpenAIOpenAI
Yes 49¢No 51¢
$566 Volume 31/12
Which CEOs will be out before 2027?
Which CEOs will be out before 2027?
Sam Altman - OpenAISam Altman - OpenAI
Yes 19¢No 81¢
Brian Armstrong - CoinbaseBrian Armstrong - Coinbase
Yes 12¢No 88¢
$691K Volume 31/12
Richest person on December 31, 2026?
Richest person on December 31, 2026?
Elon MuskElon Musk
Yes 90¢No 10¢
Warren BuffettWarren Buffett
Yes 1¢No 99¢
$152 Volume 31/12
Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2026? Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2026?
6%
chance
Yes 6¢ No 94¢
$65.2K Volume 01/01
US takes a stake in Spirit Airlines by May 31? US takes a stake in Spirit Airlines by May 31?
2%
chance
Yes 2¢ No 98¢
$198.3K Volume 30/06
Will Jia Yueting enter mainland China by...?
Will Jia Yueting enter mainland China by...?
December 31, 202550%
June 30, 20261%
$37.1K Volume 30/06
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above ___ ?
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above ___ ?
$800B
Yes 72¢No 28¢
$1T
Yes 60¢No 40¢
$1.5M Volume 31/12
Will Trump cut corporate taxes before 2027? Will Trump cut corporate taxes before 2027?
10%
chance
Yes 10¢ No 90¢
$129 Volume 31/12
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?
32%
chance
Yes 32¢ No 68¢
$277.5K Volume 31/12
SEC removes quarterly reporting requirement? SEC removes quarterly reporting requirement?
42%
chance
Yes 42¢ No 58¢
$48.4K Volume 31/12
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