Polymarket vs Kalshi vs PredictIt (2026): The Three-Way Comparison
Three platforms, three completely different designs: a crypto-native global order book, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, and an academic no-action experiment that outlived everyone's expectations. The table below compares what actually matters - fees you pay, depth you trade against, rules that decide your money - using 2026 figures. Deeper prose analysis lives in our Polymarket vs Kalshi guide.
| Criteria | Polymarket | Kalshi | PredictIt |
|---|---|---|---|
| Founded / structure | 2020 - global order book, USDC settlement | 2021 - CFTC-approved exchange (DCM) | 2014 - CFTC no-action research project, now PMRC nonprofit |
| US legal status | Yes - via CFTC-licensed QCEX acquisition (Dec 2025, $112M) | Yes - regulated DCM since launch | Yes - staff no-action relief (Letter 14-130, amended 2025) |
| Trading fees | 0% maker (plus rebates); 0% taker on politics and most economics | Variable, generally under 2% (~$1.80 per $100 trade) | 10% of profits on close + 5% on withdrawal |
| Market scope | Politics, crypto, sports, geopolitics, economics, culture - the widest board | Sports-dominant (85-90% of volume) plus economics and politics | US politics only - elections, nominations, confirmations |
| Order book depth | Deepest - roughly 3.5x Kalshi's notional to move a price; 2-5 cent spreads | Good on sports; 3-8 cent spreads elsewhere | Thin - $850 position cap keeps books shallow |
| Position limits | None | None on most markets | $850 per market (a condition of the CFTC relief) |
| Deposits | Crypto: USDC, USDT-TRC20 (2026); cards via on-ramp. US version: bank rails | Bank transfers, debit - classic fintech onboarding | Card or bank, small amounts |
| Resolution | UMA oracle - transparent but token-weighted; known governance attack cases | Internal team under CFTC oversight - fewer controversies | Operator decision per contract rules - long track record |
| Taxes (US users) | US version issues tax documents; international version is self-reported | Standard US tax forms | Standard US reporting; fees complicate basis math |
| Best for | Politics, crypto, geopolitics; global users; serious size | US sports traders wanting bank rails and tax forms | Small-stakes US politics hobbyists and researchers |
The verdict
Trading politics, crypto or geopolitics at any meaningful size: Polymarket. Zero maker fees with rebates, zero taker on politics, and the deepest books in the industry mean your edge is not eaten before it settles. US sports with bank deposits and clean tax forms: Kalshi - 85-90% of its volume is sports for a reason. PredictIt remains a charming research artifact: the $850 cap and the 10%-plus-5% fee stack make it uneconomic for traders, but its politics-only books still produce useful prices. Run the numbers on your own pattern: a $100 politics round trip costs roughly $0 on Polymarket, up to ~$1.80 on Kalshi, and up to $15 in fees on PredictIt if you take profit early.
Whichever you choose, the mechanics transfer - our first trade guide and order book guide apply to all three.
Which platform has the lowest fees in 2026?
Polymarket: zero maker fees plus rebates, and zero taker fees on politics and most economics markets. Kalshi runs variable fees generally under 2%; PredictIt charges 10% of realized profits plus 5% on withdrawal.
Is PredictIt still operating in 2026?
Yes - under CFTC staff no-action relief (Letter 14-130, amended by Letter 25-20 in July 2025), now operated by the Prediction Market Research Consortium nonprofit. The $850 position cap remains a condition of the relief.
Can US users trade Polymarket legally?
Yes - through Polymarket US, built on the CFTC-licensed QCEX exchange acquired in December 2025 for $112M. It uses bank rails and issues tax documents; the international USDC version is not for US users.
Which has the most accurate prices?
Depth decides accuracy: Polymarket's books are the deepest on politics and geopolitics, Kalshi's on US sports. PredictIt's $850 cap keeps its books thin, though its politics prices remain a respected academic benchmark.
Обновлено: 2026-06-13
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