Geopolitics · Ukraine Map

Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by...?

$171.1K Volume
01/01/2027 04:59
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December 31
$24.8K Volume
14%
Resolved 1
September 30
$146.3K Volume
No

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Rodynske, Donetsk Oblast, (48.351541° N, 37.210747° E) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.

Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.

The boundaries of the municipality are those shown under the “Ukrainian Settlements” layer on the ISW map.

For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.

Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify:
- Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives

Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.

If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Odds & FAQ

What are the current odds for Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by?
Yes is priced at 10% and No at 91%, based on live Polymarket order-book trading. Prices move in real time as traders buy and sell.
What do traders predict for Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by?
Traders currently imply a 10% chance for Yes. Market-implied probabilities reflect real money at stake, but they are live forecasts that shift as new information arrives, not guarantees.
When does the Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on 1 Jan 2027 (59 days left). It settles according to Polymarket's published resolution criteria once the outcome is confirmed.
How much money is trading on Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by?
Total traded volume on this market is $171.1K, a measure of how much real money traders have committed to the outcome.
How can I trade Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by on Polymarket?
You can follow the live odds on this page and open the market on Polymarket to trade it yourself. Prediction trading carries risk; never stake more than you can afford to lose.

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