This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?
At 91% for Yes versus 9% for No, the order book sees little doubt here. Even so, the price stays live and can swing on fresh news.
What do traders predict for Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?
With 91% implied for Yes, the market has largely made up its mind. Still a forecast, not a result: prices react instantly if the story changes.
When does the Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27) market resolve?
Mark 1 Apr 2027 (221 days left): that's when this market is due to resolve, following Polymarket's published criteria once the result is verified.
How much money is trading on Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?
Total turnover stands at $6.5K. Volume shows conviction: these odds are backed by actual positions, not polls.
How can I trade Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27) on Polymarket?
Track the live odds on this page, then open the market on Polymarket to take a position. Trade carefully - only stake what you can afford to lose.
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