FC Viktoria Plzeň vs. FK Crvena zvezda

Viktoria Plzen host Red Star Belgrade in the Europa League qualifying play-off return leg after a 3-0 first-leg defeat in Belgrade, where Mirko Ivanić scored twice and Aleksandar Katai converted a late penalty under new coach Albert Riera. Plzen’s home advantage at Doosan Arena, combined with their recent domestic scoring output and clean-sheet struggles, supports the narrow edge in trader pricing, while Red Star’s strong attacking display and squad depth keep their win probability competitive. Both sides enter with limited injury concerns and high motivation—Plzen chasing an improbable comeback and Red Star aiming to protect the aggregate—resulting in tightly bunched implied probabilities across the three outcomes.