SPX · Up or Down

S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on July 21?

$20.6K Volume
21/07/2026 20:00
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This market will resolve to "Up" if the official S&P 500 Index open price for S&P 500 (SPX) on July 21 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day.

This market will resolve to "Down" if the official S&P 500 Index open price for S&P 500 (SPX) on July 21 is lower than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day.

E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day.

If the two prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.

If SPX does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50.

If either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official open/close price published by S&P 500 Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.

If the previous trading day has no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.

The resolution source for this market is the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Open/Close values published by the WSJ under "Historical Prices".

US: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks
EMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea
ASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia

Resolution Source: www.wsj.com

Odds & FAQ

What are the current odds for S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on July 21?
At 99%, Up has pulled far clear of Down (1%). Prices stay live until resolution, but the market sees one clear outcome.
What do traders predict for S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on July 21?
Traders price Up at a 99% implied probability - about as confident as prediction markets get. Real money stands behind that number, updated live.
When does the S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on July 21 market resolve?
The market runs until 21 Jul 2026 (1 days left), then settles according to Polymarket's published resolution rules for this event.
How much money is trading on S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on July 21?
Traders have put $20.6K through this market so far - a solid gauge of how much real money backs these odds.
How can I trade S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on July 21 on Polymarket?
Follow this page for live prices; trading happens on Polymarket itself. Start small - implied odds move, and so can your position's value.

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