This market will resolve to "Up" if the official S&P 500 Index open price for S&P 500 (SPX) on July 20 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the official S&P 500 Index open price for S&P 500 (SPX) on July 20 is lower than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day.
E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day.
If the two prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
If SPX does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50.
If either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official open/close price published by S&P 500 Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If the previous trading day has no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Open/Close values published by the WSJ under "Historical Prices".
US: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks
EMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea
ASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia
Resolution Source: www.wsj.com
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on July 20?
It's a genuine race: Up edges the field at 50%, barely ahead of Down at 50%. Tight markets like this can flip on one headline.
What do traders predict for S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on July 20?
Traders give Up a 50% chance - essentially a toss-up. In markets this tight, the implied odds can swing on a single piece of news.
When does the S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on July 20 market resolve?
The market runs until 20 Jul 2026 (3 days left), then settles according to Polymarket's published resolution rules for this event.
How much money is trading on S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on July 20?
Total turnover stands at $395. Volume shows conviction: these odds are backed by actual positions, not polls.
How can I trade S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on July 20 on Polymarket?
You can watch the odds move here in real time and trade the market directly on Polymarket. As always, prediction trading carries real risk.
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