Earthquakes · Science

Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?

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$16.5K Volume

31/12/2026 00:00

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).

For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.

Odds & FAQ

What are the current odds for Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?

Yes is priced at 9% and No at 91%, based on live Polymarket order-book trading. Prices move in real time as traders buy and sell.

What do traders predict for Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?

Traders currently imply a 9% chance for Yes. Market-implied probabilities reflect real money at stake, but they are live forecasts that shift as new information arrives, not guarantees.

When does the Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027 market resolve?

This market is scheduled to resolve on 31 Dec 2026 (129 days left). It settles according to Polymarket's published resolution criteria once the outcome is confirmed.

How much money is trading on Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?

Total traded volume on this market is $16.5K, a measure of how much real money traders have committed to the outcome.

How can I trade Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027 on Polymarket?

You can follow the live odds on this page and open the market on Polymarket to trade it yourself. Prediction trading carries risk; never stake more than you can afford to lose.