This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 8, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Jill Tokuda
$2.8K Volume
97%
Greg Guithues
$145 Volume
4%
Kirill Basin
$279 Volume
1%
Steven King
$154 Volume
2%
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for HI-02 Democratic Primary Winner?
Jill Tokuda dominates the field at 96%; the nearest challenger, Candidate A, trades at just 50%. The order book treats this as nearly decided.
What do traders predict for HI-02 Democratic Primary Winner?
Traders price Jill Tokuda at a 96% implied probability - about as confident as prediction markets get. Real money stands behind that number, updated live.
When does the HI-02 Democratic Primary Winner market resolve?
Resolution is scheduled for 8 Aug 2026 (17 days left). Once the outcome is confirmed, the market settles under Polymarket's published criteria.
How much money is trading on HI-02 Democratic Primary Winner?
Total turnover stands at $3.4K. Volume shows conviction: these odds are backed by actual positions, not polls.
How can I trade HI-02 Democratic Primary Winner on Polymarket?
You can watch the odds move here in real time and trade the market directly on Polymarket. As always, prediction trading carries real risk.
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