Senate · Politics

Fetterman leaves the Democrats before the midterms?

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$267 Volume

02/11/2026 23:59

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This market will resolve to “Yes” if John Fetterman officially announces that he is leaving, or formally leaves, the Democratic Party by November 2, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Announcements from Fetterman that he will join the Republican Party, become an independent, join another political party, or otherwise cease to be a member of the Democratic Party will qualify. A consensus of credible reporting that Fetterman has formally left the Democratic Party will also suffice.

Statements criticizing the Democratic Party, voting with Republicans, endorsing Republican candidates, describing himself as bipartisan or independent-minded, or expressing disagreement with Democratic Party positions will not qualify unless accompanied by an official announcement that he is leaving the Democratic Party or a consensus of credible reporting that he has formally left the Democratic Party.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from John Fetterman; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Odds & FAQ

What are the current odds for Fetterman leaves the Democrats before the midterms?

The market prices Yes at only 16%, with No at 85%. Traders currently see this as unlikely - but live odds are a forecast, not a verdict.

What do traders predict for Fetterman leaves the Democrats before the midterms?

No strong consensus yet: Yes tops the implied probabilities at just 16%. Watch how the money moves as the event approaches.

When does the Fetterman leaves the Democrats before the midterms market resolve?

Mark 2 Nov 2026 (104 days left): that's when this market is due to resolve, following Polymarket's published criteria once the result is verified.

How much money is trading on Fetterman leaves the Democrats before the midterms?

$267 in total volume has traded here. Deeper markets like this tend to price events more sharply.

How can I trade Fetterman leaves the Democrats before the midterms on Polymarket?

You can watch the odds move here in real time and trade the market directly on Polymarket. As always, prediction trading carries real risk.