FC Carl Zeiss Jena vs. SV Darmstadt 98 (Resolved)

SV Darmstadt 98 enters this DFB-Pokal first-round tie as the clear favorite against fourth-tier FC Carl Zeiss Jena, with traders pricing the visitors at an 82.5% implied probability. The two-tier gap in league standing provides Darmstadt with superior squad depth and quality despite multiple absences, while Jena faces key injuries to Reddemann, Fink, and Hessel that further limit options at Ernst-Abbe-Sportfeld. Recent form and cup dynamics offer the hosts limited compensation, as Darmstadt’s resources and professional status create a substantial barrier even on home soil. A draw sits at 12.5% amid typical lower-league upset potential, and Jena’s outright win probability remains minimal at 4.5% given the mismatch.