FK Žalgiris Vilnius vs. HNK Hajduk Split

Hajduk Split enters this UEFA Conference League third qualifying round first leg as slight favorites due to greater squad depth, stronger domestic league pedigree in Croatia, and superior recent European pedigree compared with Lithuanian champions Žalgiris. Žalgiris have posted strong home results lately, including multiple wins at LFF Stadium, but defensive vulnerabilities and lower overall quality limit their implied win probability. Both sides show attacking output that keeps draw odds relevant, though Hajduk’s away resilience and higher expected goal creation edge the market consensus toward an away win. Recent form for each side remains mixed, with no major confirmed injuries altering lineups ahead of the August 6 fixture.