This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Democratic Party
$10.4K Volume
94%
Republican Party
$18.3K Volume
3%
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for AZ-03 House Election Winner?
Democratic Party dominates the field at 94%; the nearest challenger, Republican Party, trades at just 2%. The order book treats this as nearly decided.
What do traders predict for AZ-03 House Election Winner?
Traders price Democratic Party at a 94% implied probability - about as confident as prediction markets get. Real money stands behind that number, updated live.
When does the AZ-03 House Election Winner market resolve?
Resolution is scheduled for 3 Nov 2026 (116 days left). Once the outcome is confirmed, the market settles under Polymarket's published criteria.
How much money is trading on AZ-03 House Election Winner?
Traders have put $28.6K through this market so far - a solid gauge of how much real money backs these odds.
How can I trade AZ-03 House Election Winner on Polymarket?
Follow this page for live prices; trading happens on Polymarket itself. Start small - implied odds move, and so can your position's value.
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