This market will resolve to "Yes" if definitive evidence confirming that Adam Back is Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator of Bitcoin, is made public by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying evidence includes, but is not limited to, verified documentation, blockchain evidence, or other definitive evidence.
If Satoshi Nakamoto is conclusively identified as a group or collective rather than a single individual, definitive evidence that Adam Back was a member of that group will qualify.
Unverified or anonymous claims, speculation, memes, jokes, sarcasm, or unsubstantiated reports will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Adam Back confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31?
The market prices Yes at only 3%, with No at 97%. Traders currently see this as unlikely - but live odds are a forecast, not a verdict.
What do traders predict for Adam Back confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31?
No strong consensus yet: Yes tops the implied probabilities at just 3%. Watch how the money moves as the event approaches.
When does the Adam Back confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31 market resolve?
The market runs until 31 Dec 2026 (159 days left), then settles according to Polymarket's published resolution rules for this event.
How much money is trading on Adam Back confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31?
Traders have put $21.3K through this market so far - a solid gauge of how much real money backs these odds.
How can I trade Adam Back confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31 on Polymarket?
Follow this page for live prices; trading happens on Polymarket itself. Start small - implied odds move, and so can your position's value.
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