This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Past
Avengers: Doomsday
$140.4K Volume
71%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
$54.2K Volume
22%
Toy Story 5
$205.4K Volume
5%
The Odyssey
$158.9K Volume
1%
Dune: Messiah
$92K Volume
1%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
$65.5K Volume
1%
Resolved 6
Scream 7
$67.6K Volume
No
Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu
$47.2K Volume
No
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie
$21.7K Volume
No
Wuthering Heights
$122.9K Volume
No
Michael
$601K Volume
No
Project Hail Mary
$91.5K Volume
No
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?
The front-runner right now is Avengers: Doomsday at 71%, ahead of Spider-Man: Brand New Day at 22%. These implied odds update with every trade on Polymarket's order book.
What do traders predict for Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?
The market gives Avengers: Doomsday a 71% implied chance. These probabilities reflect real money at stake, but they are live forecasts that shift as news breaks, not guarantees.
When does the Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026 market resolve?
It is scheduled to resolve on 31 Dec 2026 (183 days left), settling under Polymarket's published rules once the outcome is confirmed.
How much money is trading on Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?
Total traded volume on this market is $3.4K - a gauge of how much real money traders have put behind the outcome.
How can I trade Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026 on Polymarket?
Follow the live odds on this page, then open the market on Polymarket to trade it yourself. Prediction trading carries risk; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
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