This market will resolve to “Yes” if any song by the listed artist is the number 1 song in any official weekly Billboard Hot 100 songs chart released for a data collection reference period entirely between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any song released with the listed artist as a primary artist will count, including songs released before 2026. If a song is released jointly by multiple artists credited equally as primary artists, it will count for all of them. Features, writing credits, production credits, or other forms of non-primary contributions to a song will not count. Artist attribution will be determined solely by the artists displayed by Billboard on the relevant chart.
Billboard updates its Hot 100 songs chart each Tuesday (with adjusted release schedules on some holiday weeks), reflecting data collected in the previous week (Friday-Thursday). Each Billboard chart is then titled “Week of (date of the upcoming Saturday)”. The first Billboard Hot 100 song chart relevant to this market will be the chart titled “Week of January 17, 2026” for a data collection reference period of January 2-8, 2026. The final Billboard Hot 100 song chart relevant to this market will be the Chart titled “Week of January 9, 2027” for a data collection reference period of December 25-31, 2026.
Updates or revisions made within this market’s timeframe to the #1-ranked song on previously published Billboard Hot 100 charts will be considered; however, such updates will not disqualify a previously published Billboard Hot 100 #1 song from counting. If a Billboard Hot 100 #1 song is revised after initial publication, both the originally published #1 song and the revised #1 song will count for this market. Updates or revisions made after the release of the final Billboard Hot 100 song chart relevant to this market will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be the weekly Billboard Hot 100 songs charts published each week at https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100/ and through other official Billboard channels.
Mariah Carey
$2.9K Volume
89%
Morgan Wallen
$352 Volume
41%
Kendrick Lamar
$4.6K Volume
74%
Peso Pluma
87%
Post Malone
$357 Volume
33%
Sabrina Carpenter
$492 Volume
67%
The Weeknd
$5.2K Volume
33%
Luke Combs
$2.9K Volume
15%
Playboi Carti
$7.9K Volume
35%
Tyler, The Creator
$589 Volume
19%
Billie Eilish
$40.7K Volume
27%
Travis Scott
$5.4K Volume
16%
Frank Ocean
$9.1K Volume
17%
Doja Cat
$11.1K Volume
15%
SZA
$570 Volume
29%
A$AP Rocky
$2.1K Volume
7%
Future
$7K Volume
10%
Rihanna
$1.2K Volume
10%
Jack Harlow
$9K Volume
25%
Ed Sheeran
$674 Volume
5%
Lil Baby
$1K Volume
10%
Zach Bryan
$1K Volume
4%
Kanye West
$866 Volume
5%
Resolved 5
Ariana Grande
$4.2K Volume
Yes
Bad Bunny
$29.6K Volume
Yes
Drake
$9K Volume
Yes
Harry Styles
$6.8K Volume
Yes
Olivia Rodrigo
$949 Volume
Yes
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Which artists will have a Billboard #1 song this year?
The current front-runner is Mariah Carey at 84%, ahead of Peso Pluma at 51%. These live odds update with every trade on the Polymarket order book.
What do traders predict for Which artists will have a Billboard #1 song this year?
Traders currently imply a 84% chance for Mariah Carey. Market-implied probabilities reflect real money at stake, but they are live forecasts that shift as new information arrives, not guarantees.
When does the Which artists will have a Billboard #1 song this year market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on 31 Dec 2026 (128 days left). It settles according to Polymarket's published resolution criteria once the outcome is confirmed.
How much money is trading on Which artists will have a Billboard #1 song this year?
Total traded volume on this market is $165.6K, a measure of how much real money traders have committed to the outcome.
How can I trade Which artists will have a Billboard #1 song this year on Polymarket?
You can follow the live odds on this page and open the market on Polymarket to trade it yourself. Prediction trading carries risk; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Similar Markets
Boston - Stella Lefty98%YesNo
I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift1%YesNo
50-70k35%YesNo
<50k32%YesNo
Man I Need - Olivia Dean27%YesNo
The Fate of Ophelia - Taylor Swift25%YesNo
<20k95%YesNo
35-40k2%YesNo
Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley27%YesNo
The Fate of Ophelia - Taylor Swift23%YesNo




