This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed term is included in a headline on the New York Times front page between May 4 and May 10, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A headline is defined as the bolded or enlarged text directly preceding each article, previewing the article’s content and typically separated from the article’s text by a black line and byline. The primary headline for each story is the headline for that story with the largest text, typically appearing in bold font and above any other headlines or text for that article.
Sub-headlines, defined as additional bolded or enlarged text not separated from the primary headline by any text, will count, whether they appear before the byline or are partially surrounded by the article text but still adjacent to the primary headline. Pull quotes, however, or any bolded text not adjacent to the primary headline, will not count.
Banner headlines, defined as front-page headlines bordered on the sides only by white space, will count.
Image captions, article text, or any other text that does not constitute a headline, will not qualify.
Any plural or possessive forms of a listed term, as well as variations in capitalization, will count toward the resolution of this market, regardless of context. Other forms of the listed term will not count.
Misspellings or iterations of the listed term, including all slang forms, will not count toward a “Yes” resolution, regardless of context or intent.
If the listed term appears as part of a compound word, usage of that compound word qualifies, provided the listed term remains a distinct component of the compound. This does not include suffixes, prefixes, alternative tenses, or grammatical variations that alter the root word. (E.g. if the listed term is joy, killjoy qualifies but joyful does not. E.g. if the listed term is sun, sunflower qualifies but sunny does not.)
If the listed term is part of a hyphenated compound, usage of that hyphenated compound qualifies. (E.g. if the listed term is NATO, pro-NATO and anti-NATO qualify.)
The resolution source for this market will be the New York Times daily newspaper, including images of the front page posted daily at: https://nytimes.pressreader.com/the-new-york-times/
Frontpage
· Culture
What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (May 4 - May 10)
Vance
$8 Volume
84%
Resolved 25
MAGA
$152 Volume
No
Oil
$450 Volume
Yes
Crypto / Bitcoin
$1.4K Volume
No
Epstein
$274 Volume
No
Congress
$208 Volume
No
Tariff
$96 Volume
Yes
Polymarket
$4.4K Volume
No
Center
$414 Volume
Yes
Iran
$682 Volume
Yes
California
$87 Volume
Yes
Gunman
$170 Volume
No
Gay
$1.6K Volume
No
JD / Vance
$240 Volume
No
Secret
$26.2K Volume
No
Street
$417.8K Volume
No
Prediction
$2.8K Volume
No
Court
$266 Volume
Yes
UFO / Alien
$4.2K Volume
No
China
$248 Volume
Yes
AI / Intelligence
$2.4K Volume
Yes
Pentagon
$162 Volume
No
Beijing
$212 Volume
Yes
Ballroom
$270 Volume
Yes
Russia
$268 Volume
Yes
Fed
$138 Volume
No
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