This market will resolve to "Up" if the official S&P 500 Index open price for S&P 500 (SPX) on July 2 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the official S&P 500 Index open price for S&P 500 (SPX) on July 2 is lower than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day.
E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day.
If the two prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
If SPX does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50.
If either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official open/close price published by S&P 500 Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If the previous trading day has no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Open/Close values published by the WSJ under "Historical Prices".
US: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks
EMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea
ASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia
Resolution Source: www.wsj.com
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on July 2?
The front-runner right now is Up at 62%, ahead of Down at 39%. These implied odds update with every trade on Polymarket's order book.
What do traders predict for S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on July 2?
The market gives Up a 62% implied chance. These probabilities reflect real money at stake, but they are live forecasts that shift as news breaks, not guarantees.
When does the S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on July 2 market resolve?
It is scheduled to resolve on 2 Jul 2026 (2 days left), settling under Polymarket's published rules once the outcome is confirmed.
How much money is trading on S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on July 2?
Total traded volume on this market is $26.5K - a gauge of how much real money traders have put behind the outcome.
How can I trade S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on July 2 on Polymarket?
Follow the live odds on this page, then open the market on Polymarket to trade it yourself. Prediction trading carries risk; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
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