This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Sonnet model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Claude Sonnet refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet. Qualifying models include Claude Sonnet 4.7, Claude Sonnet 5.0, Sonnet 5, or any other Sonnet variants. Models under any other name, such as Opus, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Sonnet by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
June 29
$176 Volume
5%
June 30
$51.9K Volume
35%
July 1
$5.6K Volume
68%
July 2
$4.4K Volume
40%
July 3
$305 Volume
68%
July 10
$10 Volume
83%
July 17
$7.3K Volume
74%
July 31
$88.4K Volume
85%
Resolved 1
June 26
$233 Volume
No
Similar Markets
June 223%
June 3080%
600B+89%YesNo
No IPO by December 31, 20278%YesNo

