This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jimmy Lai is released from custody by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Lai is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Lai is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Lai to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Extradition of Lai to another country where he remains in custody will also not count.
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from relevant government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
December 31, 2026
$14.1K Volume
3%
Resolved 1
June 30, 2026
$365.4K Volume
No
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Jimmy Lai released by?
Yes is priced at 2% and No at 98%, based on live Polymarket order-book trading. Prices move in real time as traders buy and sell.
What do traders predict for Jimmy Lai released by?
Traders currently imply a 2% chance for Yes. Market-implied probabilities reflect real money at stake, but they are live forecasts that shift as new information arrives, not guarantees.
When does the Jimmy Lai released by market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on 1 Jan 2027 (129 days left). It settles according to Polymarket's published resolution criteria once the outcome is confirmed.
How much money is trading on Jimmy Lai released by?
Total traded volume on this market is $379.5K, a measure of how much real money traders have committed to the outcome.
How can I trade Jimmy Lai released by on Polymarket?
You can follow the live odds on this page and open the market on Polymarket to trade it yourself. Prediction trading carries risk; never stake more than you can afford to lose.

