Weather · Erupt

Etna eruption with VEI 2+ in 2026?

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$71 Volume

01/01/2027 04:59

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Etna volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 2 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).

This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.

If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.

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Odds & FAQ

What are the current odds for Etna eruption with VEI 2+ in 2026?

Yes is priced at 22% and No at 79%, based on live Polymarket order-book trading. Prices move in real time as traders buy and sell.

What do traders predict for Etna eruption with VEI 2+ in 2026?

Traders currently imply a 22% chance for Yes. Market-implied probabilities reflect real money at stake, but they are live forecasts that shift as new information arrives, not guarantees.

When does the Etna eruption with VEI 2+ in 2026 market resolve?

This market is scheduled to resolve on 1 Jan 2027 (59 days left). It settles according to Polymarket's published resolution criteria once the outcome is confirmed.

How much money is trading on Etna eruption with VEI 2+ in 2026?

Total traded volume on this market is $71, a measure of how much real money traders have committed to the outcome.

How can I trade Etna eruption with VEI 2+ in 2026 on Polymarket?

You can follow the live odds on this page and open the market on Polymarket to trade it yourself. Prediction trading carries risk; never stake more than you can afford to lose.