This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for ECB rate cut in 2026?
Yes is the outsider here at 8%, while No trades at 93%. Longshot prices like this can move sharply when new information lands.
What do traders predict for ECB rate cut in 2026?
No strong consensus yet: Yes tops the implied probabilities at just 8%. Watch how the money moves as the event approaches.
When does the ECB rate cut in 2026 market resolve?
The market runs until 31 Dec 2026 (130 days left), then settles according to Polymarket's published resolution rules for this event.
How much money is trading on ECB rate cut in 2026?
Traders have put $31.8K through this market so far - a solid gauge of how much real money backs these odds.
How can I trade ECB rate cut in 2026 on Polymarket?
You can watch the odds move here in real time and trade the market directly on Polymarket. As always, prediction trading carries real risk.
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