This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' between market creation and the specified calendar day (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
ChatGPT will be considered to have experienced a qualifying incident on the specified day if the OpenAI Status Page for ChatGPT (status.openai.com) displays that day’s status box as a shade of red indicating Partial/Full Outage once it is finalized. (green indicates "No incidents", yellow indicates "Degraded performance"). A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box is added on the Status Page.
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' 'Codex,' 'FedRamp,' or 'Ads Platform,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
This market will remain open until the specified day’s status box is finalized and all incidents that began during the specified date have been resolved. Revisions that change an incident’s impact classification to or from 'Partial/Full Outage' will be considered if the revision is published before the specified day’s status box is finalized or before all incidents that began during the specified date have been resolved.
This market will resolve once the specified day’s status box is finalized, provided no incident that began during the specified date is ongoing. In case of an ongoing incident the market will remain open until the incident is marked as “Resolved” and all relevant data has been released. If the incident in question is not resolved or all relevant data has not been released by the end of the seventh day after the specified date, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
August 31
$2.1K Volume
72%
September 15
95%
September 30
96%
Resolved 1
August 22
$485 Volume
No
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for ChatGPT Outage by?
The current front-runner is September 30 at 88%, ahead of September 15 at 84%. These live odds update with every trade on the Polymarket order book.
What do traders predict for ChatGPT Outage by?
Traders currently imply a 88% chance for September 30. Market-implied probabilities reflect real money at stake, but they are live forecasts that shift as new information arrives, not guarantees.
When does the ChatGPT Outage by market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on 1 Sep 2026 (8 days left). It settles according to Polymarket's published resolution criteria once the outcome is confirmed.
How much money is trading on ChatGPT Outage by?
Total traded volume on this market is $2.6K, a measure of how much real money traders have committed to the outcome.
How can I trade ChatGPT Outage by on Polymarket?
You can follow the live odds on this page and open the market on Polymarket to trade it yourself. Prediction trading carries risk; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
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