This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mike Thompson
$1.6K Volume
84%
Eric Jones
$203 Volume
19%
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for CA-04 House Election Winner (by individual)?
Mike Thompson leads the field at 83%, with Candidate A next at 50%. A solid favorite - though every trade can reshuffle the board.
What do traders predict for CA-04 House Election Winner (by individual)?
The market makes Mike Thompson the favorite at 83%. Implied probabilities come from real positions, and they move as traders digest new information.
When does the CA-04 House Election Winner (by individual) market resolve?
Mark 4 Nov 2026 (121 days left): that's when this market is due to resolve, following Polymarket's published criteria once the result is verified.
How much money is trading on CA-04 House Election Winner (by individual)?
$1.8K in total volume has traded here. Deeper markets like this tend to price events more sharply.
How can I trade CA-04 House Election Winner (by individual) on Polymarket?
You can watch the odds move here in real time and trade the market directly on Polymarket. As always, prediction trading carries real risk.
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