What this market asks: who is sworn in as Israel's next prime minister
The biggest Polymarket Israel election market, with about $83.6 million traded by November 2, 2026, asks who will be Israel's prime minister after the October 27, 2026 Knesset election. Every vote has been counted and Polymarket resolved the seat markets on October 31, but this question is still open: it is decided by a swearing-in, not by the count.
The rule is strict. The market resolves to the person who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister following the 2026 election. An interim or caretaker prime minister does not count. If nobody is sworn in by December 31, 2027 (11:59 PM ET), it resolves to "Other". The resolution source is official information from the Government of Israel, or a consensus of credible reporting.
In practice, winning the most seats is not enough, and neither is receiving the President's mandate. Only the swearing-in counts. Polymarket lists October 28 as the market's end date, but resolution waits for that swearing-in, which can come weeks or months later.
November 2, 2026 update: consultations start on November 4
As of November 2, 2026, 3:52 AM Israel time (01:52 UTC), nobody has a majority and nobody has been asked to form a government. The Central Elections Committee's final count, published at about 12:50 AM Israel time on October 30 and unchanged since (Times of Israel, Israel National News): Likud 27, Yashar 21, Together 12, Joint List 11, The Democrats 8, Ra'am 8, Yisrael Beiteinu 7, United Torah Judaism 7, Otzma Yehudit 7, Shas 6 and Religious Zionism 6. That gives the Netanyahu bloc 53 seats, the opposition bloc 48 and the two Arab-led lists 19. Turnout was 77.9%.
On election night the 10 PM exit polls on Channel 12, Kan 11 and Channel 13 had the opposition bloc two or three seats ahead; the count put the Netanyahu bloc five seats ahead, still eight short of 61. On October 31 (UTC), Polymarket resolved the largest-party market to Likud, the Likud seats market to 25 to 29 and the bloc market to the Netanyahu bloc. None of that resolves this market.
Latest developments (November 2, 2026). President Isaac Herzog is due to receive the official results from the committee chair, Justice Noam Sohlberg, on Wednesday, November 4, and to begin consultations with the elected lists the same day, broadcast live from the President's Residence (Haaretz, Times of Israel). They are expected to run into Thursday and possibly Friday, and he has until November 11 at the latest to give the mandate (ynet). The new Knesset is due to be sworn in on November 10. On November 1 Herzog told party leaders to "stop climbing trees" and to look for "creative solutions to prevent another election" (Times of Israel, Israel National News). The same day Naftali Bennett's Together said it will recommend Eisenkot (Jerusalem Post), and the Joint List and Ra'am are expected to do the same (Jerusalem Post, Times of Israel). Ynet's tally is 60 recommendations for Eisenkot and 46 for Netanyahu, with Yisrael Beiteinu and United Torah Judaism, 14 seats between them, uncommitted. Recommendations are not coalition commitments (ynet). Sohlberg said on November 1 that the vote was conducted properly and the results "reflect the will of the voters"; Likud said "a dark cloud" hangs over them until the foreign funding probe is finished (Times of Israel, Israel National News).
The price before the vote and now
On October 26, 2026 (02:12 UTC), the day before the vote, this market priced Gadi Eisenkot at 50.4%, Benjamin Netanyahu at 26.5%, Naftali Bennett at 12.5% and Avigdor Lieberman at 2.5%. On October 28 (01:56 UTC), after the exit polls, Netanyahu was at 53.5% and Eisenkot at 32.4%. On October 30, 2026 (02:06 UTC, 4:06 AM Israel time), with the count complete, Netanyahu was at 42.5%, Eisenkot at 30.55%, Bennett at 5.2% and Lieberman at 2.5%, with every other candidate below 1%. On November 1, 2026 (02:00 UTC, 4:00 AM Israel time), Netanyahu was at 41.5%, Eisenkot at 34.35%, Bennett at 4.7% and Lieberman at 3.6%. On November 2, 2026 (01:52 UTC, 3:52 AM Israel time), the order had flipped: Eisenkot at 42.7%, Netanyahu at 35.5%, Lieberman at 5.4% and Bennett at 4.45%.
This is not a poll based on recognized statistical methods. Prices are set by traders on Polymarket and do not show public opinion or voting patterns. They express an estimate of probability, not voting intention: a 53% price does not mean 53% of voters back that candidate. Market prices are not a poll and do not represent a poll.
The separate market on who receives the President's first mandate moved first: at 01:52 UTC on November 2 it priced Eisenkot at 83% and Netanyahu at 17%, after 69% and 30.5% on November 1, 52% and 47% on October 30 and 33.5% and 66.5% on October 28. This is not a poll based on recognized statistical methods. Political figures in both blocs expect Eisenkot to get the first chance (ynet). The first mandate is not the finish line: the person tasked first can still fail to build a coalition.
What is decided, and what is still open
Decided: the vote took place on October 27 as scheduled, the count is complete, with Likud first on 27 seats and neither bloc at 61, and the seat markets resolved on October 31. Still open: whom the lists recommend to the President at the consultations from November 4, whom he tasks, and whether that person wins a Knesset confidence vote. This market depends only on the last step.
The coalition math behind the price
Netanyahu's path. His bloc has 53 seats in the count, eight short of 61. The extra seats would have to come from lists that ran on replacing him: Gadi Eisenkot has ruled out serving under Netanyahu, even in a rotation deal (Times of Israel, JNS), Avigdor Lieberman says he will not serve with him (i24NEWS), and Yair Golan backs a partnership to replace him (i24NEWS, The National). The Joint List and Netanyahu's bloc have ruled each other out (Arab News, Times of Israel), and Likud's whip, Ofir Katz, has rejected a rotation deal (Times of Israel).
Eisenkot's path. The opposition bloc has 48 seats, 13 short. With the 19 seats of the Joint List and Ra'am it would reach 67, and the Joint List says it would back an alternative government from outside, without ministries (Times of Israel, ynet). But Lieberman has rejected even outside support from Arab parties (Times of Israel, i24NEWS), and without his 7 seats the total is 60, one short of 61 (our arithmetic from the count). Shas and United Torah Judaism, 13 seats between them, said on October 29 that they would negotiate over joining an Eisenkot-led government, but their demand for a law exempting yeshiva students from military service clashes with Eisenkot's stated priority, a government "committed to military conscription" (ynet). The reported UTJ plan to abstain rather than join could let a government form without 61 seats behind it (Israel National News).
The other exits. Analysts quoted by the Times of Israel name a unity government and another election as the other outcomes, and Yohanan Plesner of the Israel Democracy Institute expects it could take "weeks and perhaps months" before the prime minister is known. Until then Netanyahu stays in office as caretaker, which does not count for the prime minister market. If nobody is sworn in by December 31, 2027, that market resolves to "Other".
This arithmetic helps explain why Netanyahu's price fell from 53.5% on October 28 to 42.5% on October 30, 41.5% on November 1 and 35.5% on November 2, while Eisenkot's rose to 42.7%, even as Likud's lead was confirmed: coming first does not supply the eight seats his bloc is missing in the committee's count.
How Israel picks a prime minister
Israelis do not vote for a prime minister directly. They vote for party lists in a single nationwide constituency. The 120 Knesset seats are shared proportionally among the lists that clear the 3.25% electoral threshold. Governing takes a majority of 61.
The official results go to the President on November 4, and his consultations start the same day. Within seven days of publication, the President consults the lists elected to the new Knesset and assigns one member the task of forming a government. That member gets 28 days, which the President can extend by up to 14 more. If they fail, the task passes to a second member. After that, 61 lawmakers can ask the President to name their own candidate. If every route fails, Israel goes back to the polls.
A government takes office when it wins a confidence vote in the Knesset, and the prime minister makes a declaration of allegiance at that sitting. That is the moment this market waits for. Until then, Netanyahu's outgoing government stays in office as a caretaker, which does not count.
What moves the price from here
The count no longer moves this market: every vote, double-envelope ballots included, is in. Politics does: the lists' recommendations to the President at the consultations from November 4, the mandate, and coalition talks.
The swing pieces are the 19 seats of the Joint List and Ra'am, Lieberman's 7, and the 13 of Shas and United Torah Judaism, so any statement on whom they will recommend, or whose government they will join, can reprice this market. So can news on a unity government or another election.
Related markets: which party wins the most seats, which bloc wins more seats and how many seats Likud wins. The largest party does not always form the government.
How to read the price
Each candidate has a "Yes" contract. A Yes price of 30 cents means traders collectively put the chance of that person being sworn in at about 30%. It is a probability, not a vote share and not a measure of public support.
The winning contract pays $1 and every other contract pays nothing. Each candidate is priced separately, so the prices need not add up to exactly 100%: at 01:52 UTC on November 2 the listed candidates summed to about 92%.
FAQ
Who won the Israel election 2026?
Likud won the most seats, 27 of 120, in the Central Elections Committee's final count, published early on October 30, 2026. Neither bloc has 61: the Netanyahu bloc has 53 seats, the opposition bloc 48 and the Arab-led lists 19. Polymarket resolved its largest-party market to Likud on October 31. The prime minister is decided later, by coalition talks and a Knesset confidence vote.
Will Netanyahu remain prime minister?
He stays in office as caretaker until a new government is sworn in, but that does not count for this market. Whether he is sworn in again depends on coalition talks: in the committee's count his bloc is eight seats short of a majority. On November 2, 2026 (01:52 UTC) his Yes price was 35.5%, after 41.5% on November 1, 42.5% on October 30, 53.5% on October 28 and 26.5% on October 26. This is not a poll based on recognized statistical methods: these are prices set by traders.
What did Polymarket predict for the Israel election?
On October 26, 2026 (02:12 UTC), the day before the vote, this market priced Gadi Eisenkot at 50.4% to be sworn in as prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu at 26.5% and Naftali Bennett at 12.5%. After the exit polls the order flipped, and by November 2 (01:52 UTC), with coalition talks ahead, it had flipped back: Eisenkot at 42.7%, Netanyahu at 35.5%. This is not a poll based on recognized statistical methods: the prices are traders' probability estimates, not an official forecast.
When does the Polymarket Israel election market resolve?
Only after a prime minister is sworn in, which can be weeks or months after the October 27 vote; the count, complete since October 30, does not resolve it, and it stayed open when the seat markets resolved on October 31. If nobody is sworn in by December 31, 2027, the market resolves to "Other". The listed end date of October 28 is not the resolution moment.
Does the largest party always get the prime minister's job?
No. The President gives the mandate to the member with the best chance of forming a government, based on the lists' recommendations. In 2009 Kadima won the most seats, yet Benjamin Netanyahu formed the government. In 2026 Likud is the largest party, but its bloc is eight seats short of 61.
