Politics · Elections

TX-04 House Election Winner

$17K Volume
03/11/2026 00:00
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Republican Party
$6.1K Volume
92%
Democratic Party
$10.8K Volume
9%

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Odds & FAQ

What are the current odds for TX-04 House Election Winner?
Republican Party dominates the field at 92%; the nearest challenger, Democratic Party, trades at just 9%. The order book treats this as nearly decided.
What do traders predict for TX-04 House Election Winner?
With 92% implied for Republican Party, the market has largely made up its mind. Still a forecast, not a result: prices react instantly if the story changes.
When does the TX-04 House Election Winner market resolve?
Mark 3 Nov 2026 (118 days left): that's when this market is due to resolve, following Polymarket's published criteria once the result is verified.
How much money is trading on TX-04 House Election Winner?
Traders have put $17K through this market so far - a solid gauge of how much real money backs these odds.
How can I trade TX-04 House Election Winner on Polymarket?
Follow this page for live prices; trading happens on Polymarket itself. Start small - implied odds move, and so can your position's value.

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