water · Drought

How low will Lake Mead drop?

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$6.2K Volume

15/04/2027 23:59

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Below 1,028 ft

$3.9K Volume

56%

1,028–1,033 ft

$262 Volume

22%

1,033–1,038 ft

$313 Volume

13%

Above 1,038 ft

$1.7K Volume

16%

This market resolves based on the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Mead (Hoover Dam) between market creation and March 31, 2027, as published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. See each individual market for its bracket and full resolution terms.

Because a lower reading can occur at any point up to March 31, 2027, all outcomes are settled after the window closes, based on the lowest daily elevation recorded during the window.

The resolution source is the minimum daily lake elevation published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation for Lake Mead at Hoover Dam, available at https://data.usbr.gov/catalog/4370/item/6123. USBR data is provisional and subject to revision; the lowest daily elevation reflected in USBR data as of April 15, 2027 governs, and revisions published after April 15, 2027 will not change the outcome. Daily elevation data published at https://lakemead.water-data.com/ may also be referenced, but if it disagrees with USBR, the USBR value governs.

Resolution Source: data.usbr.gov

Odds & FAQ

What are the current odds for How low will Lake Mead drop?

No runaway leader here - Below 1,028 ft at 48% versus 1,028–1,033 ft at 21%. Traders are split, so watch the live prices.

What do traders predict for How low will Lake Mead drop?

At 48% implied for Below 1,028 ft, the market isn't committing. Expect these numbers to move as the picture develops.

When does the How low will Lake Mead drop market resolve?

The market runs until 15 Apr 2027 (236 days left), then settles according to Polymarket's published resolution rules for this event.

How much money is trading on How low will Lake Mead drop?

$6.2K in total volume has traded here. Deeper markets like this tend to price events more sharply.

How can I trade How low will Lake Mead drop on Polymarket?

Track the live odds on this page, then open the market on Polymarket to take a position. Trade carefully - only stake what you can afford to lose.