This market will resolve to “Yes” if GitHub's Git Operations service experiences an incident with an impact classified as “critical” between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
An incident will qualify if the official GitHub Status Page (githubstatus.com) or the official GitHub Status API (githubstatus.com/api) classifies the incident's impact as “critical” and lists Git Operations among the incident's affected components ones the incident is marked “Resolved”. GitHub classifies incident impact as None, Minor, Major, or Critical; only an impact of Critical will qualify. Component status labels (e.g. “Degraded Performance,” “Partial Outage,” or “Major Outage”) will have no bearing on this market absent a qualifying critical incident.
Revisions published after an incident is marked “Resolved” will not be considered.
If an incident that began before 11:59 PM ET on the listed date remains unresolved at that time, this market will remain open and resolve at the earlier of: (i) when the incident is officially resolved, or (ii) the end of the seventh calendar day (ET) after the listed date, at which point the market will resolve based on the official information available at that time.
Incidents that do not list Git Operations among their affected components, including incidents that list no affected components, will not qualify. Scheduled maintenance will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official GitHub system-status information published at https://www.githubstatus.com/, including the official GitHub Status API (https://www.githubstatus.com/api); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
August 31
$546 Volume
3%
September 30
$962 Volume
40%
October 31
$1.5K Volume
39%
Resolution Source: www.githubstatus.com
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for GitHub Git Operations critical incident by?
The current front-runner is September 30 at 33%, ahead of October 31 at 25%. These live odds update with every trade on the Polymarket order book.
What do traders predict for GitHub Git Operations critical incident by?
Traders currently imply a 33% chance for September 30. Market-implied probabilities reflect real money at stake, but they are live forecasts that shift as new information arrives, not guarantees.
When does the GitHub Git Operations critical incident by market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on 30 Sep 2026 (38 days left). It settles according to Polymarket's published resolution criteria once the outcome is confirmed.
How much money is trading on GitHub Git Operations critical incident by?
Total traded volume on this market is $22, a measure of how much real money traders have committed to the outcome.
How can I trade GitHub Git Operations critical incident by on Polymarket?
You can follow the live odds on this page and open the market on Polymarket to trade it yourself. Prediction trading carries risk; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
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