Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde (Resolved)

Uruguay enters as the clear favorite against Cabo Verde in their FIFA World Cup 2026 Group H match at Hard Rock Stadium on June 21, with traders pricing the South Americans at 66.5% implied probability due to their deeper squad, greater tournament experience, and stronger recent international pedigree. Uruguay earned a 1-1 draw with Saudi Arabia in their opening fixture and feature proven performers, while Cabo Verde, on their World Cup debut, have shown resilience by holding Spain and posting wins over Serbia and Bermuda. Cabo Verde's defensive organization and counterattacking threat explain the 22.5% draw and 11.5% upset pricing, but the significant quality gap favors Uruguay in most scenarios. Schedule congestion and neutral-venue conditions add minor uncertainty for both sides.