This market will resolve to “Yes” if a pathogen developed, modified, or handled at a wet lab operated by Anthropic is confirmed to have escaped that facility between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Confirmation that the pathogen escaped the laboratory, research facility, diagnostic facility, or other controlled laboratory setting in which it was contained is required.
Investigations, speculation, statements that an escape is possible or has not been ruled out, or statements unverified by a consensus of credible reporting will not suffice.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
December 31, 2026
$40.4K Volume
2%
June 30, 2027
$126.6K Volume
7%
Relevant Guides
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Anthropic lab leak by?
The current front-runner is June 30, 2027 at 7%, ahead of December 31, 2026 at 2%. These live odds update with every trade on the Polymarket order book.
What do traders predict for Anthropic lab leak by?
Traders currently imply a 7% chance for June 30, 2027. Market-implied probabilities reflect real money at stake, but they are live forecasts that shift as new information arrives, not guarantees.
When does the Anthropic lab leak by market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on 1 Jul 2027 (228 days left). It settles according to Polymarket's published resolution criteria once the outcome is confirmed.
How much money is trading on Anthropic lab leak by?
Total traded volume on this market is $167.1K, a measure of how much real money traders have committed to the outcome.
How can I trade Anthropic lab leak by on Polymarket?
You can follow the live odds on this page and open the market on Polymarket to trade it yourself. Prediction trading carries risk; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
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