Who will meet with Iran by April 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between the listed individual, acting as a representative of the United States, and representatives of Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.

A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.

Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.

The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

The prediction market focused on diplomatic engagements with Iran currently shows an 18.1% probability that a U.S. representative will meet with Iranian officials by April 30, 2026. With a trading volume of $849K, this market reflects the cautious sentiment surrounding U.S.-Iran relations, highlighting the complexities of international diplomacy and the potential for significant geopolitical shifts. Investors and analysts are closely monitoring this market as it could indicate broader trends in U.S. foreign policy and Middle Eastern stability.