How many ships will Iran successfully target by April 30?

This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.

Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.

Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.

Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

The prediction market surrounding Iran's ability to successfully target commercial vessels by April 30, 2026, currently reflects a low probability of just 0.1%, with a trading volume of $204,000. This market is significant as it gauges geopolitical tensions and the potential impact on global shipping routes and oil markets, providing investors and analysts with insights into regional stability and security risks. Monitoring these probabilities can help stakeholders make informed decisions amid evolving maritime threats.